Future projection of thermal environment in Japan using WBGT.

  • Suzuki-Parker, A., H. Kusaka, 2015: Future projection of thermal environment in Japan using WBGT. Japanese Journal of Biometeorology, 52(1), 59-72. DOI:/10.11227/seikisho.52.59, 2015/04/14(Acknowledgement :SOUSEI) (Citations:(web of science:0time google scholar:0time)) .

Abstract
A future projection of Japanese thermal environment is conducted using wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). As a prelude to the future projection, current climate condition (1991-2000 August) is evaluated based on the Japan Meteorological Association’s official station data throughout Japan. Results show that August in Japan is already under a harsh thermal environment. In most of the western parts of Japan, August mean day-time average WBGT exceeds 26℃, which corresponds to “warning level” in the heat stroke risk guidance by the Japanese Society of Biometeorology. On average Eastern Japan is in a milder thermal environment, but WBGT occasionally hikes up to “danger level” of 31℃. Future projection is conducted by dynamical downscaling approach, whereby outputs of a global climate model (MIROC5) are used as initial and boundary conditions for a high-resolution regional climate model (WRF). Thermal environment in Japan is projected to worsen by the end of 21st century, with an average increase of 2.5℃ in national mean day-time WBGT. In the most parts of western Japan, number of “danger level” days for August (days with daily maximum WBGT exceeding 31℃) is projected to increase from barely none in current condition to twenty-days in future climate.

Key words : WBGT, climatology, future projection, thermal environment

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